Isnin, 22 Julai 2019



Kerajaan Malaysia Baru Bakal Tumbang Bila-Bila Masa :-

The current MP seat formation is roughly as follows;

Governing coalition :-

PKR - 49 
DAP - 42
PPBM - 23
PAN - 11
Warisan - 10
Ind - 3

Total : 138

Oppositions  :-

UMNO - 43
PAS - 18
Gabungan Sabah - 3
Gabungan Sarawak - 18
MIC - 1
MCA - 1

Total : 84

If PKR split into 36-13 (according to the recent declaration), and Anwar takes the 36 MP out of the coalition, PH government will immediately collapsed leaving only 2 options for TDM. Either he quietly and obediently step down and hand over the PM post to Anwar or he can advise Agong to dissolve the Parliament and go for snap election.

If a snap election is not possible (either Agong refuses or PH internal pressure forces TDM to give up) and a showdown is imminent, then Anwar will need to force all PH's MP, particularly the Diam Diam gang to see if they will continue to support him in Parliament as the next PM. If this is the scenario then the vote will likely go like this.

Anwar/PKR 36, DAP 42, UMNO 15, Amanah and Warisan maybe about 5, that's about it, total 98 MPs the most. Can't form government.

However, if Anwar only want to go for the kill to get rid of PPBM and Azmin and support PAS or UMNO to form the next government the vote will likely be the following.

Anwar/PKR 36, PAS 18, UMNO 30, MCA 1, MIC 1, GSabah 2, GSarawak 18, PPBM maybe 2, total 108. Still short of 4 votes but this is the best alternative for Anwar to take his revenge.

However, if Agong is to consent to a snap election, UMNO and PAS could retake about 100 seats in West Malaysia alone. And Gabungan Sarawak will capture at least 15 seats, that will be the end of PH.

The sad thing of what it is happening now is the economy will continue to be in turmoil until Malay unity takes root and form a solid government like the previous BN government.

Tzu Wong

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